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Surveys Show Downside Risks For ISM Manufacturing

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  • Ahead of tomorrow’s ISM Manufacturing survey (cons 54.5 after 56.1 in May), it’s worth pointing out that the Richmond Fed corrected its manufacturing index such that it fell from -9 to -11 rather than the -19 first reported [{NSN RE8JLGGFLIIO <GO>}]
  • It doesn’t make a large difference when looking at an average of five regional Fed manufacturing surveys though: the surveys can be more volatile than ISM Mfg but they nevertheless point to sizeable downside risk.
  • There’s a similar story from the previously released S&P Global PMI and today’s MNI Chicago PMI, the latter falling more than expected from 60.3 to 56.0 (cons 58.0) as it gave back last month’s recovery as both production (-5.7pts) and new orders (-9.8pts) fell notably.

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  • Ahead of tomorrow’s ISM Manufacturing survey (cons 54.5 after 56.1 in May), it’s worth pointing out that the Richmond Fed corrected its manufacturing index such that it fell from -9 to -11 rather than the -19 first reported [{NSN RE8JLGGFLIIO <GO>}]
  • It doesn’t make a large difference when looking at an average of five regional Fed manufacturing surveys though: the surveys can be more volatile than ISM Mfg but they nevertheless point to sizeable downside risk.
  • There’s a similar story from the previously released S&P Global PMI and today’s MNI Chicago PMI, the latter falling more than expected from 60.3 to 56.0 (cons 58.0) as it gave back last month’s recovery as both production (-5.7pts) and new orders (-9.8pts) fell notably.