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Svenska Handelsbanken: Bank to Reiterate Plans for Another Rate Hike in June

NORGES BANK
  • We strongly believe that Norges Bank will reiterate its call that the next hike is likely to come in June. Note that at these interim meetings (unless dramatic events have unfolded) Norges Bank tends to balance its public statements so that they are fairly in line with the message from the previous Monetary Policy Report. We believe that this is also likely to be the case this week.
  • We see a range of factors that suggest that risks are skewed to the upside in terms of Norges Bank’s further rate plans; at least at the front-end of the curve.
  • In sum, we believe the factors that are pointing towards upside risks to the rate path, are outweighing the downsides. Having said that, there are probably some limits to how much further upwards Norges Bank may push the longer-end of the rate path. Thus, net upside risks to the rate path could instead materialise in terms of further front-loading, and not a parallel upward shift across the entire rate path.
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