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Swap Spreads Tighten On TLTRO Move


So the ECB decides to go down the route of raising rates on TLTRO borrowing, and apparently not - pending the Lagarde press conference and technical note we get at 1545CET - of doing a reverse-tiering.

  • Bank stocks are a little higher but ASW spreads are tightening (see chart below).
  • The former is a little difficult to square but makes sense if you think the overall economic impact of the more dovish tone will offset the negative impact of more expensive TLTROs (Eurostoxx are higher in general)
  • The latter is what was expected if the ECB tightened liquidity conditions, which they have (seen easing collateral scarcity).

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