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Swedbank: Estonian AML Case Dropped, Reason for Moody's To Revisit Rating?

FINANCIALS

Swedbank (SWEDA SS) has had Estonian AML case dropped by local prosecutors. Positive but too small to move spreads but perhaps a reason for Moody’s to revisit a rating it last wrote on nearly a year ago.


  • Swedbank has been subject to a range of legal cases in the Baltics and did pay the US OFAC USD3.4m over Latvian failings, following the USD390m fine paid to its home regulator (Swedish FSA) in 2020.
  • A previous CEO has been cleared of criminal culpability even though an investigation by Clifford Chance indicated Swedbank handled nearly USD40bn of “potentially illicit funds” across 2014-2019.
  • Swedbank is the lowest-rated of the three domestic Swedes and its curve is a good reflection of this. Whilst this news is credit positive, we see it as immaterially small other than clearing a potential barrier to any upgrade. Moody’s upgraded its outlook on SWEDA (to stable) in Mar-23, since when CET1 is up 70bp (to 19.0%) and the equity is up 29% (SX7P +23%) .

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