Swedbank look for April hike

Just worth highlighting a couple of diverging views on the Riksbank published last week. Swedbank looks for a 25bp hike in April with furthe 25bp hikes at every meeting until April 2023 (1.50%). JP Morgan sees "close to no chance " of an April hike with 25bp hikes in September, and three more next year to 1.00% by November 2023.

• Swedbank: "Inflation has risen much higher at the start of the year than the Riksbank expected in February and, as a result, it will have to make big changes to monetary policy. Several recent statements from board members support this... We expect the Riksbank to raise the repo rate as soon as its next meeting in April. One alternative would be a 50 basis point hike in June. And we expect additional hikes at every meeting until April 2023, up to 1.5%. We think that asset purchases will be tapered beginning in the third quarter of this year."
• "Our forecast would mean an enormous shift compared with the Riksbank’s prediction in February. It’s worth remembering therefore that in 2014 and 2015, when inflation surprised over and over on the downside, the Riksbank chose to both cut rates by 50 bps and cut again between scheduled policy meetings. Monetary policy is designed symmetrically – if the Riksbank has to loosen by extraordinary means when inflation surprises on the downside, a quick tightening could be justified when inflation is a big upside surprise."