MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, December 12

RPT-MNI BOC WATCH: More Gradual Approach Seen After 50BP Cut

MNI BRIEF: Beijing To Protect Firms From U.S. Bill - MOFCOM

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY28.8 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1854 Thurs; -1.13% Y/Y

MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM RAISES SELIC RATE BY 100BPS TO 12.25%

MNI: SWEDEN FINAL NOV CPIF +1.8% Y/Y

MNI:AUSTRALIA NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +3.9%

MNI: US NOV TREASURY BUDGET -$366.8B

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SWEDEN: Further Real Wage Growth Key To Household Consumption Recovery

SWEDEN
CEEMEABulletSwedenGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The National Mediation Institute (NMO) estimated a 4.1% Y/Y rise in whole-economy nominal wages, implying 2.4% Y/Y real pay growth. The Riksbank expects increased real wage growth and improving sentiment to support household consumption into next year, a dynamic which is key to its forecast for an economic recovery in 2025 and 2026.

  • Nominal wage growth has eased a little since the start of this year, as the industrial union wage benchmark fell to 3.3% Y/Y from May 2024 (vs 4.1% prior).
  • However, the sustained pullback in headline inflation has allowed for positive real wage growth since September 2023.
  • NMO estimated private sector wages at 4.2% in July (vs 4.3% prior), with public sector wages estimated at 3.6% Y/Y (vs 3.5% prior).
  • August retail sales data were also released today, rising 0.4% M/M and July’s reading seeing a 3 tenths upward revision to 0.8%.
  • Although recent momentum in retail sales growth remains subdued (3m/3m SWDA growth was just 0.1% vs 0.0% prior in August), the sharp improvement in retail sentiment suggests stronger outturns are likely in the coming months. 

 

175 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The National Mediation Institute (NMO) estimated a 4.1% Y/Y rise in whole-economy nominal wages, implying 2.4% Y/Y real pay growth. The Riksbank expects increased real wage growth and improving sentiment to support household consumption into next year, a dynamic which is key to its forecast for an economic recovery in 2025 and 2026.

  • Nominal wage growth has eased a little since the start of this year, as the industrial union wage benchmark fell to 3.3% Y/Y from May 2024 (vs 4.1% prior).
  • However, the sustained pullback in headline inflation has allowed for positive real wage growth since September 2023.
  • NMO estimated private sector wages at 4.2% in July (vs 4.3% prior), with public sector wages estimated at 3.6% Y/Y (vs 3.5% prior).
  • August retail sales data were also released today, rising 0.4% M/M and July’s reading seeing a 3 tenths upward revision to 0.8%.
  • Although recent momentum in retail sales growth remains subdued (3m/3m SWDA growth was just 0.1% vs 0.0% prior in August), the sharp improvement in retail sentiment suggests stronger outturns are likely in the coming months.