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Free AccessSWEDEN: Monthly GDP Well Below Consensus, But We Caution Over-Interpretation
Only five analysts had submitted a forecast for Swedish July GDP, but the -0.8% M/M outturn was still well-below the 0.1% median (range: -0.5% to 0.3%). Weak production amongst services and construction firms drove the negative print, according to Statistics Sweden. However, we continue to interpret the monthly/flash GDP figures with caution, given the likelihood of future revisions and poor performance in tracking actual GDP growth.
- Consumption rose 0.7% M/M, but further positive data will be required to signal the start of a household recovery. Indeed, consumption was still -1.1% Y/Y (vs a 3 tenth downwardly revised -1.7% prior).
- A reminder that Q2 GDP, at -0.3% Q/Q was below the Riksbank’s 0.0% forecast in the June MPR. This should contribute to a downward revision to the growth profile in the September MPR, and pull down the policy rate path projection a little.
- See our latest Macro Signal Publication for a broader summary of economic activity: https://media.marketnews.com/2024_08_Sweden_Macro_Signal_a5b47c7514.pdf
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.