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SWEDEN: Monthly GDP Well Below Consensus, But We Caution Over-Interpretation

SWEDEN
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Only five analysts had submitted a forecast for Swedish July GDP, but the -0.8% M/M outturn was still well-below the 0.1% median (range: -0.5% to 0.3%). Weak production amongst services and construction firms drove the negative print, according to Statistics Sweden. However, we continue to interpret the monthly/flash GDP figures with caution, given the likelihood of future revisions and poor performance in tracking actual GDP growth.

  • Consumption rose 0.7% M/M, but further positive data will be required to signal the start of a household recovery. Indeed, consumption was still -1.1% Y/Y (vs a 3 tenth downwardly revised -1.7% prior). 
  • A reminder that Q2 GDP, at -0.3% Q/Q was below the Riksbank’s 0.0% forecast in the June MPR. This should contribute to a downward revision to the growth profile in the September MPR, and pull down the policy rate path projection a little.
  • See our latest Macro Signal Publication for a broader summary of economic activity: https://media.marketnews.com/2024_08_Sweden_Macro_Signal_a5b47c7514.pdf

 

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Only five analysts had submitted a forecast for Swedish July GDP, but the -0.8% M/M outturn was still well-below the 0.1% median (range: -0.5% to 0.3%). Weak production amongst services and construction firms drove the negative print, according to Statistics Sweden. However, we continue to interpret the monthly/flash GDP figures with caution, given the likelihood of future revisions and poor performance in tracking actual GDP growth.

  • Consumption rose 0.7% M/M, but further positive data will be required to signal the start of a household recovery. Indeed, consumption was still -1.1% Y/Y (vs a 3 tenth downwardly revised -1.7% prior). 
  • A reminder that Q2 GDP, at -0.3% Q/Q was below the Riksbank’s 0.0% forecast in the June MPR. This should contribute to a downward revision to the growth profile in the September MPR, and pull down the policy rate path projection a little.
  • See our latest Macro Signal Publication for a broader summary of economic activity: https://media.marketnews.com/2024_08_Sweden_Macro_Signal_a5b47c7514.pdf