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SWEDEN: Steady Long-term Inflation Expectations In “Big” December Survey

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5-year ahead CPIF inflation expectations were steady at 2.0% Y/Y in Prospera’s quarterly survey, while shorter horizon expectations were also little changed relative to September. This suggests inflation expectations will continue to play a relatively minor role in shaping near-term Riksbank policy.

  • The quarterly survey interviews purchasing managers and social partners alongside the usual money market participants.
  • 1-year ahead CPIF expectations were 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.4% in Sept) and 2-year ahead expectations were 1.9% (vs 1.8% in Sept). There were no major changes relative to September at the participant level (or November, in the case of money market participants).
  • 1-year ahead annual wage expectations rose to 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.2% prior), with 2-year ahead expectations ticking up to 3.1% (vs 3.0% prior). Note that the Riksbank has generally come across as quite relaxed ahead of the upcoming 2025 wage negotiation round.
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5-year ahead CPIF inflation expectations were steady at 2.0% Y/Y in Prospera’s quarterly survey, while shorter horizon expectations were also little changed relative to September. This suggests inflation expectations will continue to play a relatively minor role in shaping near-term Riksbank policy.

  • The quarterly survey interviews purchasing managers and social partners alongside the usual money market participants.
  • 1-year ahead CPIF expectations were 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.4% in Sept) and 2-year ahead expectations were 1.9% (vs 1.8% in Sept). There were no major changes relative to September at the participant level (or November, in the case of money market participants).
  • 1-year ahead annual wage expectations rose to 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.2% prior), with 2-year ahead expectations ticking up to 3.1% (vs 3.0% prior). Note that the Riksbank has generally come across as quite relaxed ahead of the upcoming 2025 wage negotiation round.