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SWEDEN: Swedish flash inflation a little softer - but not monpol impacts

SWEDEN
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  • The Riksbank had forecast CPIF at 1.9%Y/Y (consensus 1.7%Y/Y, actual 1.5%Y/Y). So 0.4ppt below the stale Riksbank forecast and 0.2ppt below consensus.
  • For CPIF ex energy the Riksbank forecast was 2.2%Y/Y (consensus was also 2.2%Y/Y). That came in at 2.1%Y/Y so only 0.1ppt below both the Riksbank and consensus.
  • So overall the downside miss wasn't huge. EURSEK remains below its overnight highs (Bbg data shows a high of 11.511 post-data) but we are broadly back in line with pre-data levels at 11.507 at the time of writing.
  • There's very little details released with the flash, but at first glance this doesn't really impact the expectation of another 25bp cut by the Riksbank in Q1 with an uncertain monpol outlook thereafter.
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  • The Riksbank had forecast CPIF at 1.9%Y/Y (consensus 1.7%Y/Y, actual 1.5%Y/Y). So 0.4ppt below the stale Riksbank forecast and 0.2ppt below consensus.
  • For CPIF ex energy the Riksbank forecast was 2.2%Y/Y (consensus was also 2.2%Y/Y). That came in at 2.1%Y/Y so only 0.1ppt below both the Riksbank and consensus.
  • So overall the downside miss wasn't huge. EURSEK remains below its overnight highs (Bbg data shows a high of 11.511 post-data) but we are broadly back in line with pre-data levels at 11.507 at the time of writing.
  • There's very little details released with the flash, but at first glance this doesn't really impact the expectation of another 25bp cut by the Riksbank in Q1 with an uncertain monpol outlook thereafter.