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A new surveyof swing states conducted by Redfield and Wilton for The Telegraph has found that eight of the ten most competitive states in the 2024 presidential election have moved towards Vice President Kamala Harris since July 22.
- Of the 10 states surveyed, only Wisconsin (tied) and North Carolina (Trump +3) remain unchanged.
- Arizona (Harris +1) has seen a 4-point swing. Georgia (Trump +2) has seen a three-point swing. Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Minnesota have seen two-point swings to Harris.
- The report notes: "Unlike in previous polls we’ve done, [independent candidate Robert F.] Kennedy [Jr.] no longer appears to consistently take more from the Democratic ticket than the Republican ticket."
- The report notes: "The economy remains the single most important issue for pluralities of voters in every swing state. Abortion and immigration are the second and third most commonly cited issue in each state, respectively."
- Consistent with previous surveys, voters trust Trump more on the economy, inflation, immigration, policing and crime, and defence. Harris is more trusted on healthcare, abortion, election integrity, and the environment.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Voting Intention, Swing States
Source: Redfield and Wilton
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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