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Swiss Life Results: Weak CRE News For DePfa, Aareal, Deutsche

FINANCIALS

Swiss Life 4Q23 results (SLHN SW) again point to weak real estate in Germany and France – negative for DePfa, Aareal, Deutsche – spreads of the former two have recovered significantly in recent sessions.


  • Key credit metrics: SST (Swiss solvency test) is “around 210%” at 1-Jan-24 (5pp better than Sep-23) against a strategic aim of 140-190%. The dividend was declared ahead of expectations (CHF33.0 vs. 31.8 est.).
  • Fee income appeared to slow rapidly in 4Q23 (was 5% at 9M23, now 3% for full-year) with commentary alluding to “subdued real estate” markets in Germany and France. Pre-tax looks like a miss (but clouded by accounting changes).
  • Outlook and laterals: 2024 RoE seen above target range (of 10-12%, consensus already at 13.5%) so no upgrade here. Capital repatriation is looking like being at the lower end of expectations and also “reliant on the expected normalisation” of German and French real estate. This is a weak lateral for Deutsche, DePfa, Aareal and, possibly, Baloise (reporting 26-Mar).
Conf call is 0800 London time at: https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=zILV8nzG
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