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Swiss Officials Will Provide Liquidity to Credit Suisse

US TSYS
  • US rates surged higher Wednesday, breaching Monday's highs by midday on the back of softer than expected data and a sharp sell-off in European banks overnight, particularly Credit Suisse with Knock-on pressure experienced by BNP Paribas and Societe Generale.
  • Rates scaled back support later in the session on reports that Swiss officials FINMA will provide liquidity to Credit Suisse after shares fell approximately 30% earlier.
  • Exceptionally wide ranges (front Jun'23 SOFR futures halted for 2 minutes after hitting 50Bp range circuit breaker) and heavy volume on the day as front month Tsy futures extending highs after lower than expected PPI (MoM -0.1% vs. 0.3%; YoY 4.6% vs. 5.5% est), Empire State -24.6 vs. -7.9 expected, Retail Sales in line (-0.4%).
  • Yield curves see-sawed higher as short end support outpaced bonds in the first half, 2s10s climbed to -29.397 - highest since mid-October, front month 2Y futures tapped 104-01.62 high w/ 2Y yields back below 4% at 3.7115% low (vs. 4.4070% overnight high).
  • Short end rates, meanwhile, have gone back to Monday's implied hike levels anticipating rate cuts by mid-year, December cumulative at -84.0 to 3.741 while Fed terminal rate running at 4.835% in May.
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