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Sydbank 1Q24 Preview: Muted Growth, Spread Compression

FINANCIALS

Sydbank 1Q24 preview (SYDBDC; A3 pos): strong spread performance YTD, and over the last month, but earnings upgrades have been very muted. Danish GDP revisions have been positive recently, but ECB rate expectations remain a key driving factor.


  • Results last time (28-Feb) were very positively received by equity investors (+20% over the following four sessions) as there was a big upgrade to the equity buyback commitment (c.5% of the market cap). Results were broadly in line with consensus at the pre-tax level but then a lower tax rate drove a beat on net income.
  • Sydbank’s been the star performer of the Danish banks with spreads 78bp tighter YTD (Danes -36bp, €IG banks -39bp). The equity is up 22% YTD (SX7P +16%) so also a positive performer.
  • Earnings were upgraded c.3% for FY24 (but barely at all for FY25) after results. Revenues were edged up for this year and down for next.
Results are 0730 (London time).
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