Free Trial

Takeaways From The BOS/CSCE Surveys For Q1

CANADA
  • The BOS shows growing inflationary pressures: 70% of firms expect average inflation to be above 3% over the next two years (before 67%), more firms see it taking 2-3 years rather than 1-2 years to get inflation back to 2% (35% vs 34%, before 31% vs 39%) and 81% of firms expect some or significant difficulty in meeting demand (before 78%).
  • One of the few areas of hope for the BOC was long-term consumer inflation expectations remaining well-anchored, falling from 3.5% to 3.23%.
  • FI: Surprisingly small move in rates, with BAX futures largely shaking off the release and GoCs giving back some of the earlier twist steepening but with 2YY still -1.5bps and 10Y +1.5bps on the day.
  • FX: Little immediate reaction in USDCAD although it’s since stepped lower to -0.35% at 1.2477, adding to an earlier decline as oil firms and other commodity exporting majors fare well against the USD. The pair sits towards the low end of its recent range, with support eyed at 1.2430 (Mar 30 low).

Canada 5Y and 10Y breakevens (white, yellow) vs CSCE 2y ahead and 5y ahead inflation expectations (green, purple)Source: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.