Talks On NI Border Deal Unlikely To Affect Post-Brexit Relations

The UK's Daily Telegraph reportedearlier that, "British negotiators have held secret talks with EU officials over possible “wriggle room” in Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal for Northern Ireland in a bid to end the DUP’s Stormont boycott." The UK is seeking more leniency from the EU with regards to more "favourable language on the implementation of the “Green Lane”, a channel for British goods exported to the province with less border controls." The UK officials made clear that the talks were not a re-negotiation of the Windsor Framework as that route was not open.

• The story is unlikely to have much market impact. The most relevant implication would relate to any impact on EU-UK relations. However, given the seeming low profile of talks a deterioration in ties between Westminster and Brussels appears unlikely.
• Politics in Northern Ireland remains at a standstill, with the hard-line unionist Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) refusing to join the power-sharing Executive at Stormont until its demands on minimising customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland are heeded. The EU will not countenance any measures that put at risk the integrity of its single market.
• Today marks the deadline for the DUP to rejoin the Executive, but it appears that this will once again be missed. This will require the UK gov't to implement legislation pushing back the deadline again, dissolving the regional assembly and calling fresh elections, or implementing direct rule of Northern Ireland from Westminster (a politically controversial option).