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Tax Collections Data, Treasury Notes Auction

BRAZIL
  • Despite USDBRL trading higher at Wednesday’s late open following local holidays earlier in the week, the pair reversed those gains and currently sits just below the 5.15 mark. BRL continuing to find comfort from the debate around adjusting the inflation target subsiding for now. Focus is on tomorrow’s IPCA-15 inflation data where the annual rate is expected to dip to 5.59%.
  • As a reminder, economists raised their 2023 and 2024 inflation forecasts for the fifth-straight week in yesterday’s BCB Focus survey.
  • Swap rates may react to the volume of the Treasury notes auction, to be released around 1330GMT/1030 local time; sale to include fixed-rate LTN local notes due 2023, 2025 and 2026 and fixed-rate NTN-F local notes due 2029 and 2033.
  • Finance Ministry are scheduled to disclose tax collection data for January at 1330GMT/1030 local, followed by a press conference 30 minutes later. Economists estimate that revenue increased to around BRL250b, although complete fiscal picture won’t be seen until next week with central govt budget data that incorporates federal spending.
  • Local investors will also be monitoring developments regarding a case of mad cow disease in the north of the country, which led the government to suspend meat exports to China.
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