Tax Take Moderates, But Treasury Cash Pile Still In Line To Near $1T

The Treasury took in $51.1B in individual/corporate tax receipts on Tuesday, a day after the April 15 tax deadline saw a $154.8B intake.

• That included $36.1B in individual receipts paid electronically ($50B lower than Monday but the 2nd highest of the month), and as expected a large jump in non-electronic payments to $12.8B from $4.7B Monday, offsetting a $61B pullback in corporate income taxes (to $2.2B - a big drop had been anticipated).
• The cumulative tax take beginning 5 days before Tax Day now stands at $322B, well up from $289B at this point last year, though again lower than the bumper 2022 tax year ($351B) - see chart.
• The TGA (operating cash balance) rose by $9B to a fresh post-May 2022 high of $906B - up $225B from a week earlier.
• This cash level is expected to rise further - Wrightson ICAP: "The bottom line is that our estimate of the April 30 level of the TGA as of this morning ($936 billion) is virtually unchanged from our forecast at the start of the week."
• They note that while Treasury may start cutting bill auction sizes as soon as next week, it's more likely this will wait until closer to the May 1 refunding announcement.
• Collections on Wednesday (data out later on Thursday) are seen being bolstered by holiday-delayed filings in some states.
• Despite some concerns coming into the month, funding market pressures have remained subdued through the tax season, with SOFR rates basically steady, and Fed funds market volumes running below last week's pace.

Source: MNI via Daily Treasury Statement