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TD Above Consensus For CPI

CANADA
  • TD see headline CPI inflation easing from 8.1% to 7.8% Y/Y (cons. 7.6%), with the main M/M drag from gasoline falling nearly -8% and wiping 0.3pps from headline.
  • Expecting a stronger performance across ex food & energy, with large contributions from shelter and recreation. Despite that, average core to hold at 5.0% with “a relatively high bar for CPI-trim/median to move higher in July” on slowing momentum and larger base effects with CPI-common only +0.1pp to 4.7%.
  • FX: “A moderation in CPI should help the market price in peak hawkishness by the BOC. USDCAD dips are a buy and we think legging into topside around the BOC meeting is compelling.”
  • Rates: Big surprises will drive relative Can-US performance. Tactically "gearing up for Sep 1st index-driven demand, which should trigger a meaningful supply-demand imbalance in conjunction with no 30y nominal auction this August month-end”.
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