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TD: CPI Gives No Reason For BoC To Delay Hiking

CANADA
  • TD note the inline headline CPI print of 4.8% Y/Y “as seasonal headwinds and a pullback in the energy component helped drive prices 0.1% lower on the month”.
  • However, “Core CPI measures also firmed in December, with the average rising 0.2pp to 2.93% y/y, which overshadows the headline print heading into the upcoming BoC decision”.
  • “If the BoC were looking for a reason to keep rates unchanged in January, they're unlikely to find it in the December CPI report, and we [continue to] expect a 25bp hike next week”.
  • “The market is reacting quietly, which makes sense on an in-line with consensus print. However, when we look under the hood as emphasized above, core inflation is pushing up against 3% and that puts the odds further in favor of a January hike.”
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