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TD: Lack Of Guidance A Policy Choice; ICAP: Finetuning Still Possible (2/2)

FED
  • TD: The lack of clear guidance is a policy choice: the Fed aims to keep the market from pricing in rate cuts too early or for financial conditions to ease further. The Fed also wants to make sure that once it decides to pause (reach terminal) they do not have to return to tighten policy again. A potential conundrum for Fed officials ahead of the September meeting: Do they overweight softening inflation over a likely still-tight labor market? Powell mentioned the word "data" 22 times during the press conference and cited "inflation" 82 times. This hints at just how data dependent the Fed is likely to remain heading into future FOMC meetings.
  • Wrightson ICAP: Even if the economic data move against the Fed over the next eight weeks, the FOMC has the option of sending a very hawkish signal by reiterating its forecast of another rate hike later in the year in the quarterly SEP. If policy is truly data-dependent, and we think it is, more data points mean more opportunities for the FOMC to finetune its policy views.
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