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TD Mostly More Hawkish Than Consensus For CAD Jobs Report

CANADA
  • TD Secutiries look for employment growth of 30k (cons 15k) in January but “this will not be enough to keep the UE rate from rising 0.1pp to 5.9%” (cons 5.9).
  • They see it reflecting “a recent pickup in hiring intentions and stronger growth momentum into year-end”, whilst “seasonal distortions introduce some upside risk to this report given the longer-term trend towards smaller NSA declines in January before the COVID lockdowns in 2021 & 2022”
  • They see “limited scope for a meaningful deceleration in wage growth”, eyeing -0.1pps to 5.6% Y/Y (cons 5.3).
  • They see a first rate cut in July and view upcoming CPI data in the near-term driving seat. “We reiterate short Canada 10s vs US 10s as a longer-term trade, but we do note indifference near-term where we are just as happy to add back to the trade at -75bps as we are to see our core position work for us if it were to move towards -50bps.”
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