Free Trial

TD On BoC’s Macklem

CANADA
  • TD see Macklem’s comments as reinforcing a 50bp hike on Oct 26, but are reluctant to extrapolate them much further given the current short shelf-life of central bank comments and with economic data starting to cool.
  • They still see a 4.25% terminal (25bps in Dec & Jan) but comments at face value imply upside risk.
  • FX: USDCAD dips should be bought, look for 1.40 this year. Have long held the view that more rate hikes will have a perverse effect on CAD as it worsens household debt servicing outlook.
  • Rates: Reiterate view of 6m6m-1y1y, 1y1y 1y5y (bull flattening option structure) and 10s30s flatteners. The risks of over hiking are growing.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.