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TD On Tuesday’s CPI Report

CANADA
  • TD look for headline CPI to rise by 0.4% M/M in July, pushing inflation 0.3pp higher to 3.1% Y/Y after a brief dip inside the BoC’s target range.
  • “Base-effects will play a large role with a smaller drag from energy products, while a rebound in household communications and the seasonal tailwind to travel-related components should help to drive the increase from June.”
  • They class a 0.3% M/M increase for CPI-trim/median as “modest progress” as the average would fall 0.2pp to 3.6% Y/Y and 3m rates of core inflation break below their recent range with 3.2% after holding between 3.5-4.0% since Sep’22”.
  • “The BoC will not be overly concerned with headline inflation pushing back above its target range, especially with Q3 CPI tracking below projections from the July MPR, and the Bank will also be pleased to see 3m rates of core inflation breaking below their recent range. However, the rebound in services, especially amid signs of renewed wage pressures, alongside another 0.3% M/M increase for core measures should keep the Bank in wait-and-see mode going forward, as it will want more evidence that inflation pressures are subsiding before taking hikes off the table.”
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