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US DATA
TD sees a below-consensus +500k nonfarm payrolls figure Friday. This call is perhaps made somewhat more noteworthy since their preview was written after the well-above-consensus ADP May payroll reading of +978k.
- They note "the ADP series has not been reliable a indicator of what to expect from the BLS", and instead point to the Homebase data series for private payrolls which is up less in May and in April than in March (see chart).
- They expect public sector employment to be boosted by "fewer-than-usual end-of school-year layoffs", which should also boost June and July numbers too.
- Overall: "Payrolls gains are likely to remain historically large in the months ahead, although the net result at year-end will probably still be a large pandemic-related decline."
Source: TD, citing Homebase
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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