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TD Preview: Too Soon For T Word

FED

TD has brought forward its expectations for Fed tightening since the March FOMC (see below). They don't expect Chair Powell to balk at using the word "taper" in the April press conference, "but we certainly don't expect any signal that tapering is imminent".

  • Statement: Likely to change to note some strengthening in inflation / growth / labor market.
  • Press conference: Powell to once again make clear that he and FOMC want to see evidence of more than just a temporary bounce due to base / reopening effects.
  • Powell's tone should be a bit more positive than in March (cf economy at an "inflection point"), but strengthening will have to continue for a while to and convincingly imply a pickup in the trend in inflation to lead to tapering. Progress on the labor market is already starting to look substantial.
  • Future action: Tapering formally announced in Mar 2022 (TD previously saw Sep 2022, and before that, Jan 2023). "Countdown to tapering" to begin around the September FOMC.
  • TD sees September 2024 for rates liftoff (had been 2025).
  • IOER hike in the coming months.
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