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TD & Scotiabank Are Split On Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • TD is at the upper end of the surveyed range, calling for payrolls growth rising to +650k in Nov (cons 546k, 531k in Oct) tomorrow.
  • A “strong trend continues to be signaled by surveys and claims” and the latest Homebase data saw a decline that was “more than accounted for by seasonality”.
  • They see the unemployment rate down two tenths to 4.4% (cons 4.5%) plus a more widely expected 0.4% M/M rise in hourly earnings.
  • Scotiabank meanwhile is looking for +450k on a pullback from categories seeing a boost from the easing Delta variant effects in Oct, whilst it’s “too early for a small rise in cases that began in the November reference week to impact hiring”.
  • Initial jobless claims fell modestly between NFP reference periods and then more significantly to 199k for the week ending Nov 19th. "That might be a positive signal, but it’s more likely a distorted reading given the shifting timing of Thanksgiving from year to year and challenges with seasonal adjustments”.
  • They expect a small dip in the unemployment rate (per consensus) but a modestly milder average hourly earnings figure at an implied 0.3% M/M.
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