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TD Securities expect one 15bp hike this year

BOE
  • TD Securities now sees a hike this year.
  • "Whether the MPC hikes in Nov or Dec remains a coin toss. The vote for a hike in Nov is likely to be close - likely 5-4 or 4-5. We count 4 probable votes to hold policy unchanged, 3 to hike, and 2 unknowns. Dec could be a more clear-cut vote to hike if the MPC chooses to take a pass in two weeks."
  • "We therefore anticipate a 15bps rate hike at one of the Nov or Dec MPC meetings (with Nov more likely given Bailey's signal), followed by 25bps hikes in Feb and Aug 2022."
  • TD previously looked for the first 15bp hike in Aug22 with a further 25bp in Nov 22.

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