Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
- TD Securities issue new trade recommendation: Short US 10y Treasuries.
- They cite an entry of 1.50%, targeting 1.70% with a stop-loss of 1.39%.
- TD write that even though the last two jobs reports were weaker than consensus, momentum remains solid. They look for Q2 and Q3 GDP of 8% and 7%, respectively.
- CPI is likely to remain strong. Even though the recent move is mostly driven by supply chain disruptions and reopening-related demand, it can bring some caution at the Fed about being too dovish.
- While they don't expect the Fed to taper until early-2022, they expect them to sound upbeat on the recovery. The median 2023 dot is likely to move higher, and the Fed can start to talk about the conditions and timing of the exit. This should come as a surprise to the market, which is priced for a dovish Fed.
- Even though the market is pricing in strong CPI and a dovish Fed, the biggest risk to the trade is a weakening in growth/inflation momentum and even more Fed dovishness.