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TD: Still See No Hikes Until Late 2023

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
TD maintain their relatively dovish view that fading inflation in 2022 will allow the Fed to hold off on rate hikes until late 2023, but don't rule out increasingly hawkish commentary in the near term.
  • Following Biden's Powell/Brainard picks, TD "continue to expect a fading of fiscal stimulus and an easing of supply-chain constraints to lead to enough slowing in growth and inflation in 2022 to allow Fed officials to hold off on rate hikes until late 2023, in contrast to the earlier tightening being priced into markets."
  • However, they are "not expecting the data to suddenly weaken significantly in the next two months, so pressure on Fed officials to at least sound/look a bit more hawkish could only increase in the near term, including in confirmation hearings and in the December dot plot."
  • Treasuries bear flattened after Chair Powell's renomination "but with nearly 3 hikes priced in for 2022, we believe the market may be reaching the saturation point for how aggressively they can price hikes at this juncture."
  • "We think Powell's renomination leave the USD supported for now despite less broad-based appeal. We think the USD can remain firm against the funders as the prospect of a faster taper remains a risk the market is chewing on."
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