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Tech Focus: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDTRY Downtrend Remains Intact

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF is unchanged and is consolidating. Recent short-term gains are still considered a correction. The outlook remains bearish and the downtrend that started Dec 31 is intact. The focus is on 353.15 next, a major support and the Dec 14 low. 354.87, Feb 2 low is the bear trigger.
    • On the upside, key resistance remains 361.14, Jan 27 high where a break is required to alter the picture. Initial resistance is at 359.66, Feb 9 high.
  • EURPLN is also unchanged and consolidating. The cross is trading above the recent low of 4.4709, Feb 10 low. A breach of 4.5057/89, the 50-day EMA and Feb 12 high would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Key resistance is further out at 4.5618, Jan 28 high. Sub 4.4709 levels would resume bearish pressure.
  • USDZAR weakness appears to have found a base for now at 14.405, Feb 16 low. Tuesday's price pattern in candle terms is a bullish engulfing signalling scope for a short-term corrective recovery. A break of 14.8256, Feb 17 high would open 15.0047, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger is at 14.4052.
  • USDTRY is consolidating. Bearish conditions continue to dominate.
    • The pair has breached 7.00 to maintain the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
    • This has opened 6.8568, the 50.0% retracement of the Nov 2018 - Nov 2020 uptrend.
    • The 20-day EMA at 7.1312 marks a firm near-term resistance.
  • USDRUB earlier this week breached the base of the bull channel drawn off the Dec 17 low. Attention remains on 72.6566, the Dec 17 low. Resistance has been defined at 74.4674, the Feb 12 high.
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