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Expiries for Jul30 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)


EGB/Gilt - Finding some demand at the lows

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  • EURHUF remains firm following this week's gains. The strong recovery paves the way for a move to 357.17 and 360.02, 50% and 61.8% retracements of the downleg between Mar 18 - Jun 10. Support is at 349.85, Jun 15 low.
  • EURPLN remains in a corrective phase. Recent gains have resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs suggesting scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Further upside would open 4.5868, 61.8% of the Mar 29 - Jun 7 downleg and 4.5931, Apr 28 high. Support is at 4.4872, Jun 14 low.
  • USDZAR is holding onto this week's gains and the rally that started Jun 7, remains intact.
    • The pair has traded above a number of key resistance levels; bear channel resistance at 13.9652, drawn off the Apr 24 2020 high and 14.0487, the 50-day EMA.
    • The channel has been cleared before however if a strong rally can be maintained, this would signal a key reversal of the entire downtrend that started early Apr 2020.
    • The focus is on 14.1989 next, May 13 high.
    • Initial support is seen at 13.6806, Jun 14 low.
  • USDTRY has this week recovered from support highlighted by the 50-day EMA. The EMA is considered a key support area and the bounce from it is a bullish development. Key S/T support has been defined at 8.2860, Jun 11 low. The focus is on 8.8008, Jun 2 high and the bull trigger.
  • USDRUB maintains a bearish tone following the recent break of 72.5385, Mar 16 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position and this clearly highlights the fact that for now, the path of least resistance remains down. The recent break lower signals potential for weakness towards 71.0838, 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2020 rally. Resistance is at 72.8438, the 20-day EMA.