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TECHS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDRUB Weakness Extends

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF continues to retrace recent gains. The bull rally stalled at the 364.27 area, 61.8% retracement area of the downleg between Mar 18 - Apr 12 - the high on Apr 23 was 364.40. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish focus that would open 366.16, the 76.4% handle. Initial firm support is at 360.13, Apr 19 low. A break would risk a deeper pullback towards 358.15, Apr 14 low.
  • EURPLN traded higher yesterday and breached resistance at 4.5751, Apr 8 high. A stronger climb would open 40.6088, Apr 5 high. At present, gains appear corrective in nature. Key support is unchanged at 4.5203, Apr 12 low and just above 4.5202, 76.4% of the Feb 10 - Mar 29 rally. A clear break lower would suggest scope for a deeper pullback to 4.50 and 4.4709, Feb 10 low.
  • USDZAR has traded lower but remains within its recent consolidation range. This consolidation still appears to be a bear flag. It is a continuation pattern and reinforces current bearish conditions. The focus is on 14.0633, the 1.236 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing. Initial resistance is at 14.4363, yesterday's high.
  • USDTRY traded to a fresh high Monday of 8.4851, just above the 8.4707 high on Mar 22 but has since pulled back. Despite the move lower, a bullish theme remains intact and dips are considered corrective.
    • Fresh gains would expose 8.5793, the Nov 6 high and an important resistance.
    • Key support is unchanged at 7.6958, Mar 22 low. Initial firm support is at 7.9886, Apr 2 low.
  • USDRUB weakness extends. The pair last week cleared support at 75.2275, Mar 31 low and this week's follow through opens 73.8370, 76.4% of the rally between Mar 16 - Apr 7. The 20-day EMA at 75.6774 marks initial resistance.
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