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Tele2 Ahead On Sales/EBITDAal, CapEx Guidance Potential Concern

COMMUNICATIONS


  • Sales/Rev slightly ahead of consensus: Net sales SEK7.68 billion, +3.1% YoY vs. consensus SEK7.61bn, Adj-EBITDAal SEK2.62bn, +5.7% YoY vs. cons SEK2.59bn. Swedish segment (~75% of business) returned to YoY underlying EBITDAal growth for first time since 2022. Ordinary div of 6.90 vs. consesnsus of 6.82 – no mention of special div which has been questioned lately given worse CapEx outlook. .
  • Service revenue growth, underlying EBITDAaL growth both in line with FY23 guidance, CapEx to Sales at upper end of guidance range (13%-14% vs. 10%-14%. MT Capex to Sales guidance moved to 10%-12% from 10%-14%. though the company guides for 13-14% in FY24/FY25.
  • Leverage +0.2x to 2.5x (as expected given Swedish spectrum purchase). FCF of SEK 531mn was +17% vs. consensus though the 500mn beat of Q3 was not repeated. SEK 600mn cost cutting announced – market had been looking for this given CapEx outlook.
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