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Temporary Relief For Local Assets

MEXICO
  • Currently halting the momentum of a 6-day sell-off, the Peso has gained 0.75% against the dollar as of writing. Confirmation of the anticipated dovish Jerome Powell prompted some relief demand for Latam FX as the dollar pared some gains against emerging market currencies.
  • TIIE swap rates have also fallen. The curve has bull flattened with the front end 1-4 bps lower and the long end shifting down ~10 bps erasing a small amount of the move higher in previous sessions.*USDMXN high yesterday of 20.8334, matches exactly with the low made on 27th October. 25.30 holding in EURMXN bolsters the technical story for a short-term consolidation for the Peso.
  • Key local data points/events for rest of the week include:
    • 24-Feb 1200GMT/0700ET Mexico Retail Sales and Bi-Weekly CPI
    • 25-Feb 1500GMT/1000ET Banxico Minutes**
  • Worth noting, AMLO's electricity bill will be presented in the lower house of congress today. Political uncertainty may ramp up following the Mexican Institute for Competitivity saying the proposed law "goes against the Constitution and international trade agreements, specifically the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement".

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