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Tenreyro giving little indication whether seh will vote for cut or not

BOE
  • This is the key part of Tenreyro's speech. She's clearly not going to change to vote for a hike - but this doesn't really provide much guidance as to whether she will continue to vote for rates on hold in the May/June meetings (her last before her term ends) or if she ends up voting for a cut in one of those meetings:
  • "With Bank Rate moving further into restrictive territory, I think a looser stance is needed to meet the inflation target in the medium term. In general, a looser stance can be achieved either through lower Bank Rate today, or through lower Bank Rate in future, which leads to a lower market curve. A lower market curve would then lower lending rates and loosen financial conditions today. At the same time, with Bank Rate moving further into restrictive territory, there are limits to the amount of loosening that can be provided through this mechanism. So I expect that the high current level of Bank Rate will require an earlier and faster reversal, to avoid a significant inflation undershoot."
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