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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
With Federal Reserve terminal rate pricing tumbling 5bp on a US CPI miss, implied ECB and (especially) BoE peak rates were pulled back Wednesday.
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -23.5bp to 6.25% (125bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2024): Terminal BoE pricing is now off 40bp from the Jul 6 intraday peak, with basically a full 25bp hike removed from the path today as the US inflation print posed questions for whether the BoE can get to 6.50%.
- Interestingly, August MPC implied pricing has faded to 42bp (vs 46bp at the start of the week), suggesting increasing scepticism over a another consecutive half-point raise - we get UK GDP data first thing Thursday.
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -3bp to 4.01% (51bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023): ECB pricing diminished slightly after the US CPI print, but held on to the 4.00% mark. Commentary from ECB's Lane and Vujcic in the afternoon leaned dovish but had little impact. Thursday sees French final CPI, Eurozone IP, and the accounts of the June ECB meeting.
Source: MNI, BBG
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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