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THB: USD/THB Bounces But Still Comfortably Sub 20-day EMA

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USD/THB is tracking around 0.70% higher in latest dealings, leaving the pair near the 33.75/80 region. This is a noticeable rebound from Friday's intra-session lows near 33.50. Still, we are some distance from the 20-day EMA, which tracks back closer to 34.30, so further gains may be considered a short term correction until we test this resistance point. 

  • Catch up with broader USD gains post Friday's onshore close, coupled with a tick higher in USD indices so far today, is curbing baht momentum. In particular, lower yen levels will be working against THB based off historical correlations. Gold prices are steady as well. US yields are firmer, led by the front end (+4bps for the 2yr yield), unwinding some of Friday's losses. As we noted late last week, recent downside in USD/THB has correlated nicely with lower US-TH 2yr yield differentials
  • In the equity space, the SET index is off its recent highs, down around 0.4% so far today. This comes after the index higher towards the end of last week, which resulted in nearly $500mn in offshore net equity inflows.
  • On the data calendar we get consumer confidence out this Thursday.
  • Note we should hear more about the new PM's economic agenda on this day as well. PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra is expected to unveil plans in parliament this Thursday, with tackling household debt seen as a priority (per BBG), see this link). The digital wallet scheme is still expected to form part of efforts to boost economic growth.    
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USD/THB is tracking around 0.70% higher in latest dealings, leaving the pair near the 33.75/80 region. This is a noticeable rebound from Friday's intra-session lows near 33.50. Still, we are some distance from the 20-day EMA, which tracks back closer to 34.30, so further gains may be considered a short term correction until we test this resistance point. 

  • Catch up with broader USD gains post Friday's onshore close, coupled with a tick higher in USD indices so far today, is curbing baht momentum. In particular, lower yen levels will be working against THB based off historical correlations. Gold prices are steady as well. US yields are firmer, led by the front end (+4bps for the 2yr yield), unwinding some of Friday's losses. As we noted late last week, recent downside in USD/THB has correlated nicely with lower US-TH 2yr yield differentials
  • In the equity space, the SET index is off its recent highs, down around 0.4% so far today. This comes after the index higher towards the end of last week, which resulted in nearly $500mn in offshore net equity inflows.
  • On the data calendar we get consumer confidence out this Thursday.
  • Note we should hear more about the new PM's economic agenda on this day as well. PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra is expected to unveil plans in parliament this Thursday, with tackling household debt seen as a priority (per BBG), see this link). The digital wallet scheme is still expected to form part of efforts to boost economic growth.