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OIL: The attacks on major Saudi crude facilities (which account for ~5% of
global production) leave WTI ~+$5.00, with Brent ~+$6.00, well shy of the early
highs, as the geopolitical risk premium returned with avengeance after last
week's Bolton unwind.
- The U.S. has been quick to point the finger at Iran, with Trump tweeting:
"There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded
depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who
they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would
proceed!" Ahead of the crude re-open Trump tweeted "Based on the attack on Saudi
Arabia, which may have an impact on oil prices, I have authorized the release of
oil from the SPR, if needed." Some noted that this helped the space to retrace
from extremes, but it is worth remembering that the crude in the U.S. SPR isn't
a like-for-like in terms of quality/grade when compared to the Saudi product.
- Various source reports have suggested that 30-40% of the affected supply will
come back online today, although full production may not be reached for
weeks/months. An official update from Saudi is expected on Monday.