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AUSSIE: The AUD has paid more attention to the modest beat on net exports % of
GDP than the wider than expected Current A/c deficit & soft January retail sales
data. The data dump showed that net exports are to detract 0.5 percentage points
from Q4 GDP. This was slightly better than MNI median forecast for a detraction
of 0.6 points.
- AUDUSD last trades at 0.7780, with AUDNZD at 1.0750 & AUDJPY at 82.70
- For AUDUSD technicals suggest that bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec
lows. In saying that, bulls look for a close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of
100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7910 to initially target
$0.7989. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7694.
- Looking to the 10 AM NY option cut, there are some notable expiries in play
($0.7795-0.7800(A$1.07bn) & $0.7850-60(A$887mn)).
- Westpac have suggested that "the AUD remains somewhat pricey compared to short
term fair value estimates, as yield differentials along the curve move steadily
in the USD's favour. This weight on AUD should only increase over the next year