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Free AccessThe Belly Lags
T-Notes narrow at the re-open, +0-01+ at 132-02+ after going out a touch above worst levels of the day on Wednesday. We highlight that the contract struggled for traction below the 132-00 mark, with notable OI in both puts and calls with a 132-00 strike (relative to most other strikes at present). Cash Tsys cheapened across the curve, with the belly leading the way lower as 5- to 7-Year paper cheapened by ~4.0bp come the bell.
- Goings on in the cryptocurrency space dominated matters into NY hours, although local events took centre stage from there.
- The latest 20-Year Tsy auction tailed by ~1.0bp, with the cover ratio dipping below the recent averages, while dealer takedown nudged higher, but still remained below the 6-auction average.
- The minutes of the FOMC's April meeting was also at the fore. On the prospect of tapering the minutes noted that "a number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases." On inflation, the minutes noted that "participants also noted that the expected surge in demand as the economy reopens further, along with some transitory supply chain bottlenecks, would contribute to PCE price inflation temporarily running somewhat above 2 percent. After the transitory effects of these factors fade, participants generally expected measured inflation to ease. Looking further ahead, participants expected inflation to be at levels consistent with achieving the Committee's objectives over time. A number of participants remarked that supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages may not be resolved quickly and, if so, these factors could put upward pressure on prices beyond this year."
- Yields tagged the highest levels of the day in the wake of the minutes after bottoming out in the late NY morning, with the 20-Year Tsy auction accelerating the cheapening into the release of the minutes.
- The Australian labour market report headlines the regional docket during Asia-Pac hours.
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