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US TSY/RECAP: The curve bull steepened on Thurs, with a relatively volatile end
to the session observed, on the back of month-end flows & option tied hedging.
T-Notes closed just back from best levels, comfortably higher on the day.
- Worries surrounding an Italian technical recession and a softer than expected
Chicago PMI release helped underpin. The U.S.-China trade talks yielded little
in the way of firm progress, but tones were generally warm, although U.S. TR
Lighthizer noted that there is still much to do. Trump tweeted that there will
be no firm deal until he meets with Chinese counterpart Xi, which was proposed
by Chinese representatives. Trump also wants "a big trade deal" or it will be
postponed. Xi stressed that he hopes that both sides can meet each other half
way. There is talk of up to another 2 meetings between the superpowers in the
pipeline ahead of the Mar 1 tariff deadline. IP matters and industrial subsidies
remain the key stumbling blocks, as well as enforcement of any end deal.
- Focus now turns to Friday's NFP report, with Fed's Kaplan also set to speak,
the first Fed speaker after this week's pivot to patience.
- T-Notes last 122.13+, U.S. 10-Year cash Tsy yields closed at 2.629%.