The ECB has just released scenario analysis.....>

ECB: The ECB has just released scenario analysis for the impact of COVID-19

pandemic, alluded to by President Lagarde previously.

- In 'mild' scenario, lockdown ends in May 2020, with normal activity returning

gradually thereafter. GDP drops 5% in 2020, recovering to +6% in 2021.

- In 'medium' scenario, lockdown ends in May, but followed by strict containment

measures delaying return to normal activity. GDP drops 8% in 2020, +5% in 2021.

- In 'severe' scenario, lockdown ends in June, has limited success in virus

containment, so requires longer-term containment measures until a vaccine

becomes available until mid-2021. GDP drops 12% in 2020 (including the -15% in

Q2 Lagarde mentioned yesterday), recovers only +4% in 2021, with real GDP

remaining below 2019 levels until end-2022.

- Note: "these are illustrative scenarios compiled by ECB staff and, as such,

they should not be seen as an indication of the forthcoming June 2020 Eurosystem

staff macroeconomic projections". Full link:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2020/html/ecb.ebbox202003_

01~767f86ae95.en.html