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SONIA: The front end of the Sonia curve is steeper in early Wednesday morning
trading compared to Tuesday's close as markets look ahead to UK July labour and
average weekly earnings data at 0830GMT. Following yesterday's sharp rise in
both CPI and core CPI, attention will be on weekly earnings data and if real
incomes have squeezed even lower. However, MNI median forecast is for earnings
to increase to 2.4% from 2.1%, while ex-bonus is seen only rising to 2.2% from
2.1%. MNI PINCH now see markets pricing a 92% chance of a 25bp rate hike in Feb
2018 and following levels in BoE forward dated Sonia:-
- Sep-17 0.2bp higher at 0.231%
- Nov-17 1.3bp higher at 0.329%
- Dec-17 1.1bp higher at 0.352%
- Feb-18 1.4bp higher at 0.444%
- Mar-18 2.2bp higher at 0.447%
- May-18 1.4bp higher at 0.494%
- Jun-18 1.9bp higher at 0.502%
- Aug-18 2.0bp higher at 0.536%

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