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The Median Quit Rate Suggests Faster Wage Moderation Ahead (2/2)

MARKET INSIGHT
  • However, the still historically elevated nature of the quits rate is down to a few sectors that are still far above pre-pandemic levels, most notably accommodation & food services at almost +2.5%pts. This is the sector that most heavily lags in the post-pandemic recovery, with a chance that some of these quits are permanent moves to other industries.
  • On the flipside, in a point also made by SF Fed economist Petrosky-Nadeau when talking to MNI, quit rates in the (rapidly growing) professional & business services and (less fast growing) retail sectors are back to where they were pre-pandemic – first chart below shows compared to Feb’20 levels.
  • Perhaps a better gauge of the genuine level of quits is the median rate, which shows a similar recent decline to that of job openings, fairly sharp in recent months and potentially indicative of a faster cooling in wage growth ahead than would otherwise be the case.

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