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Shrugging Off The Reflation Trade

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries are a little weaker overnight Tuesday, having edged higher from Asia-Pac lows. Most of the action has been outside the FI space in a facsimile of Monday's early reflation trade: equities are gaining (~eminis +0.8%), the dollar is weaker (-0.3%) and oil's broken higher.

  • Yesterday's strong PMIs, news of the Biden transition proceeding, and optimism over COVID vaccines and Brexit negotiations all contributing to a risk-on tone.
  • Main data highlight is Nov Conference Board consumer confidence at 1000ET.
  • We also get regional Fed indices. Nov Philly Fed nonmanuf. was supposed to be released at 0830ET but has been published on their website (general activity showed decline to 5.3 from 25.3 in Oct). Nov Richmond Fed at 1000ET.
  • St Louis Fed Pres Bullard speaks at 1100ET, NY Fed's Williams at 1200ET, and Vice Chair Clarida at 1245ET.
  • In supply, at 1130ET we get $60B of 41-/118-day bills, then at 1300ET: $24B 2-Yr FRN and $56B 7-Yr Note auctions.
  • NY Fed to buy ~$2.425B of 1-7.5-Yr TIPS.

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