This Week’s Highlights RBA Minutes Tuesday & Retail Sales Wednesday

The highlights of the week are the RBA June minutes on Tuesday and retail sales on Wednesday.

• The RBA left rates unchanged at its June 18 meeting, but it sounded more concerned re “persistent” inflation and now has an “alert list”. The minutes are likely to be watched for more details re the possible upside risks to inflation in the wake of the higher-than-expected May CPI outcome. There are no other RBA events this week.
• May retail sales are out on Wednesday and forecast to rise 0.3% m/m after 0.1% the previous months. The data is nominal and has moved sideways for some time. Q1 consumption surprised to the upside.
• The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for June prints today. Unlike the CPI data, this measure moderated considerably in May to 3.1% from 3.7%.
• ANZ job ads for June are also today. The labour market remains tight but vacancies have been easing. This series fell 2.1% m/m in May.
• The final June composite and services Judo Bank PMIs are released on Wednesday. The preliminary readings fell considerably from May but remain in positive territory.
• May building approvals are published Wednesday. Despite strong housing demand, the series has been weak. The total is forecast to rise 1.7% m/m.
• Thursday sees May trade data with the surplus expected to narrow moderately to $6.33bn from $6.565bn. Exports to China have been soft.