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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- First and foremost, does core services excluding shelter maintain its latest moderation? One of the standout findings of the Nov CPI report was that non-shelter core service inflation failed to bounce from an already soft Oct print. Instead, it registered its softest since July and before that Sep’21 with just 0.16% after 0.23% M/M according to MNI calcs, or 0.12% if excluding just OER and primary rents rather than total shelter. No official series here adds scope for some measurement error.
- Did CPI rents continue to hold off moderation in new rents? OER and primary rents were one of the few hot spots in last month’s CPI report as both accelerated after a surprise dip in October.
- Does core goods deflation extend further? Core goods prices fell -0.52% M/M in Nov with a large drag from used car prices as part of the unwinding of massive increases through the pandemic. We watch to see whether core goods prices excluding used autos see deflation, having technically avoided it with just 0.01% M/M in Nov. Improvements in supply chain pressures from measures such as the NY Fed’s GSCPI have levelled off which could suggest not much further moderation at least for now.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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