Tight Polling In Maryland And Texas Broadens Senate Map

A string of new state-level polls suggest that the race for control of the Senate may be scrambled by tighter-than-expected races in Maryland and Texas.

• A bipartisan AARP poll found that former Maryland governor Larry Hogan (R) is tied with Democrat Angela Alsobrooks (D) in the race for the open Maryland Senate seat of outgoing Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD).
• As Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win Maryland by over 30 points in November, the polling demonstrates a high prevalence of split-ticket voting in the state.
• In Texas, Democrat Senate candidate Colin Allred is trailing Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) by two points, according to new polls from YouGov and Democrat-affiliated environmental advocacy group, Clean and Prosperous America PAC.
• Should Hogan or Allred win in November, they would be the first candidate to win a Senate seat for their party in Maryland and Texas since 1987 and 1988 respectively.
• The new polling, which also includes additional Democrat-affiliating surveys pointing to a tight race in Florida, indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris' ascent to the top of the ticket may have expanded the available pathways for Democrats to retain control of the Senate.
• Before Harris assumed the Democrat nomination, conventional wisdom stated that Democrats' chances of winning the Senate ran through the Montana seat of Senator Jon Tester (D-MT). Tester is polling 3.5% behind Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, per DDHQ, and will likely need to outperform Harris by around 15 points to win re-election.