MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 26

MNI BRIEF: China, US Should Strengthen Dialogue, Cooperation

MNI BRIEF: SNB Framework Reform 'Playing With Fire' - Steiner

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1056 Fri; -4.56% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 613; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 105

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL APR INDEX 77.2

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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Tight Ranges Prevail Ahead Of CPI

US TSYS
FOMC Calendar Market NewsHomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

TYM4 sticks to a narrow 0-03+ range, on sub-par volume of ~172K.

  • Yields are little changed across the curve.
  • CPI data presents the key macro risk event of today’s session, with activity limited ahead of that event.
  • Our full preview of that release can be found here.
  • The latest J.P.Morgan Tsy client survey revealed that both active and total client positioning metrics have moved back to neutral territory, from long previously.
  • Meanwhile, futures positioning remains net short across the curve (per the latest CFTC report), although it is of course difficult to delineate basis trade from pure speculative positioning.
  • FOMC-dated OIS shows ~67bp of cuts through ’24, with ~14.5bp of cuts showing through June.
  • The strip has printed at the least dovish levels of ’24 in recent days, with the first 25bp cut now not fully discounted until the Sep FOMC.
  • End of ’24 pricing has showed below 62.5bp of cuts on a couple of occasions.
  • The Fed’s dot plot has provided a bit of an anchor for that metric.
  • A reminder that the Fed’s SEP shows a median of 75bp of ’24 cuts.
  • A closer look at the distribution shows that it is only 1 dot that leaves the median at 3x, not 2x 25bp cuts through year end.
  • The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, Fedspeak from Bowman, Goolsbee & Barkin and 10-Year Tsy supply are also due in NY hours.
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TYM4 sticks to a narrow 0-03+ range, on sub-par volume of ~172K.

  • Yields are little changed across the curve.
  • CPI data presents the key macro risk event of today’s session, with activity limited ahead of that event.
  • Our full preview of that release can be found here.
  • The latest J.P.Morgan Tsy client survey revealed that both active and total client positioning metrics have moved back to neutral territory, from long previously.
  • Meanwhile, futures positioning remains net short across the curve (per the latest CFTC report), although it is of course difficult to delineate basis trade from pure speculative positioning.
  • FOMC-dated OIS shows ~67bp of cuts through ’24, with ~14.5bp of cuts showing through June.
  • The strip has printed at the least dovish levels of ’24 in recent days, with the first 25bp cut now not fully discounted until the Sep FOMC.
  • End of ’24 pricing has showed below 62.5bp of cuts on a couple of occasions.
  • The Fed’s dot plot has provided a bit of an anchor for that metric.
  • A reminder that the Fed’s SEP shows a median of 75bp of ’24 cuts.
  • A closer look at the distribution shows that it is only 1 dot that leaves the median at 3x, not 2x 25bp cuts through year end.
  • The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, Fedspeak from Bowman, Goolsbee & Barkin and 10-Year Tsy supply are also due in NY hours.