GILTS: Tight Ranges, Yields A Touch Higher, BoE's Greene Due Later

Gilts a little lower alongside core global FI peers, although remain within ranges seen during the first half of the week.

• Futures last -16 at 95.85.
• Initial support and resistance 95.17/96.54.
• A bullish corrective cycle in the contract remains in play and recent gains reinforce short-term conditions.
• Yields 0.5-1.5bp higher, curve a touch flatter.
• 5s30s still 15bp off November closing lows, last ~65bp.
• Gilt/Bunds back to little changed at 218bp, 220bp caps moves higher, but fundamentals limit pullbacks.
• I/L tender passed smoothly enough, with the average price comfortably above prevailing mids, although the cover ratio slipped below 3.00x.
• SONIA futures flat to -1.5.
• BoE-dated OIS flat to 2.5p less dovish on the day, showing 29bp of cuts through March and ~82.5bp of cuts through Dec ’25.
• Little tangible reaction to the latest DMP survey.
• Our macro team noted that the release showed little reason for MPC members to change their views (see earlier bullet for greater colour).
• Comments from BoE MPC member Greene (17:00) due later.
• Greene remains on the hawkish side of the MPC, so dovish inferences would impact the market more than any hawkish comments.